2026 American Express PGA Odds: Tony Finau Leads Long-Shot Picks Amid Competitive Field

The 2026 American Express tees off this week on the PGA Tour, drawing a competitive field and a wave of betting interest as golf fans and analysts weigh the odds. With favorites attracting attention, Tony Finau has emerged as a notable long-shot pick, headlining those who could surprise at La Quinta, California. As experts from both the New York Post and CBS Sports highlight, the tournament offers value plays and a range of storylines to follow.

Favorites and Field Overview

According to CBS Sports, the 2026 American Express will feature a strong lineup of PGA Tour professionals, with several top-25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking expected to compete. The event’s unique three-course rotation and pro-am format make it a strategic test, often leading to surprise outcomes in the final leaderboard.

• Favorites are cited as recent tour winners and consistent performers with solid records at La Quinta.
• The field includes a mix of stars and emerging talent, making for unpredictable final rounds.

Tony Finau: Long-Shot to Watch

The New York Post spotlights Tony Finau as a top long-shot selection for bettors and fans. While Finau may not be among the top-five favorites, his all-around game and recent form position him as a potential breakout candidate.

• Finau has demonstrated the ability to contend in low-scoring events, which is often required to win at The American Express.
• His odds present strong value for those seeking an outside-the-box pick, especially considering his past success on similar courses.

Statistical Insights and Betting Angles

Both sources emphasize the importance of finding value beyond the favorites. CBS Sports references a proven golf model that takes into account recent player performance, course history, and advanced statistics:

• Key metrics include strokes gained: approach, putting, and scoring on par 5s—essential for success at La Quinta’s setup.
• Historical data shows that long-shots have fared well at The American Express, with several recent champions starting the week outside the top-20 in betting odds.

Other Notable Contenders

While Finau garners attention as a long-shot, both publications also mention other players worth watching. These include tour veterans with strong records in California and young players making their American Express debuts. Although neither source lists full odds tables, both agree that the event’s structure lends itself to volatility and potential upsets.

What to Expect at La Quinta

The American Express is known for its low cut line and birdie-fest reputation, with winning scores typically well into the 20-under-par range. According to CBS Sports, the three-course rotation and pro-am presence can favor experienced players who adapt quickly to changing conditions.

• Weather conditions and course setup will be factors to monitor throughout the week.
• Players with strong short games and the ability to capitalize on par-5 opportunities are particularly well-positioned to contend.

Analysis and Outlook

Cross-referencing the analysis from the New York Post and CBS Sports, it’s clear that betting experts and golf models alike see the 2026 American Express as wide open. While favorites may seem safe, historical trends and the tournament’s unique format make long-shots—including Tony Finau—especially enticing this week.

Fans and bettors should track the field’s performance on Thursday and Friday, as early scoring can set the tone for a surprise leaderboard heading into the weekend. With so much depth, this year’s American Express promises drama for viewers and those wagering on golf’s next big winner.